Mohsen Ebrahimi; Hamid Reza Larti
Volume 12, Issue 46 , October 2012, , Pages 1-26
Abstract
In recent decades, the policies of financial and trade liberalization have been considered in most of the world countries, and there are different experiences in this regard. Therefore, this study will review the effects of financial and trade liberalization on the production volatility in Iranian economy ...
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In recent decades, the policies of financial and trade liberalization have been considered in most of the world countries, and there are different experiences in this regard. Therefore, this study will review the effects of financial and trade liberalization on the production volatility in Iranian economy (with and without oil sector) by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for the period of 1960 to 2007. The results show that in the model that includes oil sector, trade liberalization has positive and significant effect, but financial liberalization has negative and non-significant effect on production volatility. In the model without oil, financial and trade liberalization policies both have a positive and significant effect on production volatility. In addition, the long-term relationships between the variables are approved. The value of error correction coefficient is estimated to be -0.49, which shows the amount of adjustment toward equilibrium values in the long-run. The structural stability tests for the model's strength are acceptable for the period of study.
Mohssen Ebrahimi; Alireza Ghanbary
Volume 9, Issue 34 , October 2009, , Pages 173-204
Abstract
The main factor influencing the fluctuation of oil revenues is the price fluctuation of oil. Considering that Iran economy is dependent on oil revenues, therefore controlling the risks of price fluctuation in oil, seems to be quite necessary.
One of the new strategies in controlling price risk factor ...
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The main factor influencing the fluctuation of oil revenues is the price fluctuation of oil. Considering that Iran economy is dependent on oil revenues, therefore controlling the risks of price fluctuation in oil, seems to be quite necessary.
One of the new strategies in controlling price risk factor is entering into the oil paper market, and using financial derivatives as an instrument, which is the subject of review in here. Coverage instrument used, are future contracts of one to four month in nymex oil stock exchange market. In this review, by using different methods of econometric, different situation for strategies covering the risk was resulted, of which for selecting the best situation, efficiency and desirability for each one is estimated. Results show that, by using future contracts, we can reduce the risks of oil revenues at least by 85%, which is reached upto 96% in most suitable circumstances.
